Forex Order Flow Scalping - Forex Factory : Forex Factory

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Ideas in motion: Coin offering entitling you to the profits of a hedge fund

Ideas in motion: Coin offering entitling you to the profits of a hedge fund
Hi,
I would like some advice about a potential coin offering I would like to start.
I'm a trader and developer, and I've been building an automated trading platform for quite some time now (see pics).
This platform allows users to build, test, and deploy automated trading strategies. Naturally, I'm the first user, so I'm automating my own scalping-style strategy for the Forex market. I've traded this strategy manually with success and have moved on to automating it. Others who want to automate their trading strategies can do so on this platform, which provides them with a development environment and a set of libraries and APIs for trading and visualization. Their strategies can then be deployed to trade live with brokers and generate profits for them. So in many ways, the platform is currently similar to QuantConnect.com
I'm exploring ideas for the integration of blockchain technology into this project. I think it would interesting to start a coin offering that gives the coin holder rights to the profits of a hedge fund.
Such a fund can exclusively trade automated strategies (no manual trading) that are developed in-house and thoroughly tested and proven to be profitable prior to going live. Such a fund can exist entirely electronically, built on top of my platform, with the platform serving as the UI to everything:
  1. Development environment for trading strategies.
  2. Deployment & management of live strategies (with UI abilities to intervene).
  3. A management system for the distribution of profits to coin holders
  4. Reporting, regulatory, and risk managements systems associated with traditional hedge funds

Since the platform is the "host" to trading strategies built to run on it, it can be the gatekeeper to order flow, funding, and profits. In other words, it can be built such that
  1. The distribution of profits to coin holders is immutably engrained in the software.
  2. Allocation of funds to different strategies can be controlled via voting of coin holders.

Funds are needed to put together a team and continue developing this project full speed.
Would such a coin offering generate interest?
Btw I'm based in NYC if anybody wants to meet in-person.
https://preview.redd.it/p81ppmk01si51.png?width=1336&format=png&auto=webp&s=419dde09bad911c3de820e16f0fb3f4e9b5de8fc
https://preview.redd.it/xj5dnkk01si51.png?width=1332&format=png&auto=webp&s=19b8cf583099fd2edd3352f7d0afc2a83279aa70
https://preview.redd.it/8eyurmk01si51.png?width=1267&format=png&auto=webp&s=1d9c9e6b7679a5917e378a687d4509e03fbbc11a
submitted by NoiseNo8221 to blockchain_startups [link] [comments]

Forecasting the End of Major Corrections, and Accumulating Trend Trading Positions.

Forecasting the End of Major Corrections, and Accumulating Trend Trading Positions.
A prerequisite post to this post can be read here; https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/
It will also be beneficial to read this;
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/

Before getting into the meat of things, you need to understand the 'elastic band' effect of large moves in the market. What this means is most of the time before a market starts to make a big move in the direction it is ultimately going, it will make a strong and usually fast counter move. You know this already in a way. You've been taught from early on (I assume) that pin bars (hammers etc) are indications the market is reversing. You're told the wicks are formed by price pushing into an area and being rejected from it.

In a trend formation, this is what the intra-week price action would tend to look like when there is the formation of reversal candles at the close of the weekly timeframe.


https://preview.redd.it/nv1nbk0c9th31.png?width=909&format=png&auto=webp&s=f87d94ee33f0d07cde211c05d9234a236a487309
Here we would have been in a down trend and then for a week or two seen bullish momentum. The blue swing is the "elastic band" move. Or what I like to call the "ping swing".

The formation I have drawn here is not arbitrary. A lot of specific things are going on in this chart. Here I've highlighted the relevant ones. When we've seen all of these, we know there is a good chance we have reached the end of a C leg correction (read up on basic Elliot wave theory if you do not understand this terminology).


https://preview.redd.it/8u9bg43nath31.png?width=1066&format=png&auto=webp&s=1ddb04a27b9a99ddbcaab5eef4e3ca7eea78e000

There can be variance in the 4 and 5 area. I am being polite, I should be honest. This area is often a bitch to trade in. Sometimes there are deep retracements and sometimes they are really shallow. Personally I've not been able to find ways to get strong ideas of how to forecast which is more likely. It tends to be an area I lose money and one I continue to work on trying to develop better ways of dealing with.

Here are examples of each type from trades I've taken recently.


https://preview.redd.it/6n0x4k43cth31.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=f03fdbff3176e1df36727f3606dbf6fc67912e53
This is explained in more context at https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/cks8q1/shorting_noobs_problems_proofs_and_fine_tuning/

This chart is messy because a lot of positions are being taken rather than a specific strategy being followed, but as I've explained in the 'Shorting Noobs' series of posts, I am mot interested in trading off the 61.8% fib.


https://preview.redd.it/97cb1x0wcth31.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=d49bbac385242184d9f9ba2708d1e9fe92efba42
Here is one with EURUSD that had very shallow sell-off then made the ping swing.

https://preview.redd.it/dbiujru0fth31.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=277682a868af7cb2dc2b612243a8abfef54e9de0
You maybe thinking at this point, "But the range bit looks like it should be the 5". I know! I told you it's a bitch. As you can see here regardless of this I have still sold the best price. I am doing this by having a clear SR level I am forecasting in this sort of move. (Explained in more detail in the shorting noob series [2] [3] )
Note, it is still entirely possible that this can make another ping swing and slightly spike out this high. If it does, we have a great opportunity. At this point, we are wiser to look for the better RR trade with trend continuation by considering we are possibly in this part of the move and we have the next (usually stronger than previous) sell off coming.


https://preview.redd.it/15xd09pzfth31.png?width=730&format=png&auto=webp&s=c5e3a70fbc9411b36d74a7e32ebf5c1aabf1ad05

Which actually fits inside another cycle for a ping swing.

https://preview.redd.it/31craqbkgth31.png?width=1018&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d7cc139aa406673213c62009220a3182e7e9e55

Here is a real time forecast of a ping swing we can watch for and set pending orders (or define areas to watch for reversal patterns)

GBPUSD

https://preview.redd.it/uz93cn53ith31.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b2d9a7fc12c961dafb7ee3cc7aa4c1aec29c927
(Ignore the buy trades on this, they are from a different type of strategy)

This is a lot of information, and to intrinsically understand this you'd have to go over a lot of trending charts and watch how they have developed. I have spent a hell of a lot of time on this. I will round up with leaving you just a few simple rules we can take from understanding this general pattern that recurs in trends. Some of them will help you win, others will help to prevent you losing.

1 - When it starts to chop, it's time to stop.

When a trend that has been in a free flowing form starts to get choppy, it's time to stop following the trend for the time being. You should be aware the next breakout(s) can be false ones, and the next shallow correction for a "Retest & continue" type trade is likely a trap.

2 - Big corrections rarely feature only one leg.

When you see a really big move against the trend it gets really tempting to rejoin the trend once it starts to form price action reversal candles. Any time you're entering without the market having previously faked and then spiked out early sellers at least a couple of times, you have a more risky trade.

3 - Forecast where early sellers will lose.

Quite simply, if you see a downtrend and then a spike up and what looks like the continuation of a downtrend you can assume there are sellers into what they think will be the new downtrend move. It's also quite likely these sellers have it very wrong on their stop area. It will be just above the previous highs and the consolation range. This is the very area we'd expect the ping swing to spike into and then make the proper trend move after whipsawing those who sold too early.
Where they are getting stopped out, you want to be entering. Not sure where this is? Look in Forex forums, they'll tell you.

4 - Velocity does not mean victory!

As price comes into the reversal area it will usually be carrying a lot of short term momentum and moving fast. Moving quickly into an area is not in any way an indication of a break of that area or a reversal. In fact, once you've identified where you think the ping swing will end, the more parabolic that move is into that area the better for the reversal trade. Plan ahead, do not be caught up in the moment. The moment will be deceptive.

5 - Have excellent exit plans on both sides of this sort of move.

If the move fails, the counter move running against you can be persistent. Stop losses should be around 78% of the swing. Small spike outs of the 61.8% level are to be expected. Breaks of the 76% level are not. Similarly, profits can come lightening quickly. Which can actually be a problem if you've not planned the areas you want to exit or how to trail your stops. So be well prepared to exit before you enter.


The things I have explained in this post have validity on all timeframes. I scalp with it, and I swing with it. It transfers readily to any market with trending properties. If you were to master this (especially at an intraday level - which is harder) , it would be highly likely you significantly beat what most people would think are "good returns" when the markets are trending.
It would be possible for someone who has sufficient skill in doing this to make themselves substantial profits even starting from a small amount of money and using moderate risk over the course of just trading 4 - 5 major trend moves on daily and weekly charts. This is quite an easy setup in my opinion (once it's been highlighted at least) and for as long as you can find trends to use it, it will outperform most strategies I see on public display.

(All bets are off in ranges. This will make a mockery of you if you try to do it in ranges)

Happy trend following :)
submitted by whatthefx to Forex [link] [comments]

Round Ups and Updates: Trades, Strategies and Results.

Hi, I want to do a post to sort of round up and bring together everything I have been talking about over the last week(s). I know it may seem I have been jumping from one thing to another, but it is not dumping one idea and moving onto the next. It is plate spinning. I will do them all, just working on getting them all running concurrently.

Housekeeping

First, a bit of housekeeping. For those of you who are not here because you want to be part of a community that is actively focused on profiting from the Forex market, and talking about the real ways of doing that, based on results; the time really has come for you to leave. I am not booting you. You just will not like it here. That is what this group is going to be about. How to generate profits. There are some "Forex traders" here that seem to think that a dirty word, you will find yourself better company somewhere else. That is going to be the focus of this sub.

Secondly, for those of you who seem to be here to tell me my strategies do not work ... I was not asking! Especially if you openly admit you have not tried them. I am sure standing 1,000 miles away from a chart and calling it "tea leafs" this stuff will not work well at all. I have not tried that, personally, but it does seem it would be unprofitable. So I get it does not work, for you. I asses if it works for me by if it makes money or not. If the market starts to tell me it does not work, then I will adjust it. You're like people living in a desert telling an Eskimo there is no usefulness in ice. You have not done the work, and refuse to suspend prejudice to asses results ... of course it does "not work".

I am only showing people what I do. Via ForexCopy, you can copy my trades if you want. If you ask me questions about what I do, I will gladly help you understand it. However, this is entirely contingent upon you having tried it out yourself (and me being able to tell that from you asking targeted questions). I can only show you what I do. Until you do it, you can not know it like I do. When you are doing it, I will then help you.

Trading

Okay, onto more useful and practical things. Let's talk trading.

Last week went well. I will do another post rounding up the analysis posts and all that stuff.

We sorted out issues we had in week one on live copier testing. From the open of the week to the close the account went from around $50 to about $72.

https://preview.redd.it/da3vugz7qcb21.png?width=876&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa73f605b98293fd4e12139b50867fc1767838f7
These stats are fuzzed a bit, since it is starting from a DD point (from last week). The actual gain here was closer to 40% or so. The actual draw-down probably more like 7%.


https://preview.redd.it/5vxt50ufqcb21.png?width=852&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2135aa0cf72c6d9792d8a1dbf34d8b6fbf93b09

You can see the trades here. Loses tended to come in couples adding up to about 5%. There was not a strong of losses incurring 16% draw-down.


$2 Flip Challenge.
See first
https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/agsnmm/40_1000_flip_challenge_update/

This is on! I busted a few times. First about $2 deposit. Then $1 twice. Then starting from $2 again I got up to $5, and closed the week at $5. $5 give me several chances to catch a decent trade next week. Depending on market conditions, I may look to scalp small profits to bankroll if it is ranging and not flowing much. However, if it is trending, I will look ofr ways to position and then use equity profits to build a larger position (at the same starting risk) and look to flip $1 risk into $10 to $20 +. From there, things will be much easier. I can then just link this with one of the copier strategies and see how much it can be compounded. If we reach $5,000, I will bank $4,000, and then we can look at doing something far more ambitious.

I've re-pinned the Myfxbook to start on Friday (since this is the first day getting above minimum viable margin)
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/inweedwetrust/40-1000/2893650
(Myfxbook on it is strange at the moment, showing it floating down in equity, but it is not. All trades are closed. I am sure this will fix itself within a few pings in the starting week).


Copy Trading

Copy trading is ready for a soft launch. Things are running well on current copying accounts and we can add some more.
The first one will be a simple strategy, the main aim of this is for it to be broker flexible. So it can be used by a variety of people. Also to be non tome consuming, and not requiring VPS to run.

As well as having the option to copy this strategy, you can also use it just as a signals service. Checking if there are orders placed and then placing the same ones manually, if you want. Please understand any trades taken under any form are entirely your decision to make. I accept no liability for loss.

You can read about this strategy in full here https://www.reddit.com/ForexCopy/comments/agrttm/simple_trend_signals_strategy/

For this week, we will stick with just this one. This is easy, and low maintenance and it will give us another week of making sure everything works well in the more complex strategies.

If you are copying/using signals from this strategy, it would be very helpful for me if you can set up a Myfxbook for tracking the results. Please let me know if you do that. Send me a message (message, rather than chat. I tend to miss a lot of chats). Or post the link here.

Through the next week (maybe even all over the weekend), I will publish the other strategy plans. We will not be using them this week, it is just prep for what we will be using going forward presuming week 3 of live testing goes well.


Asset Management Competition

See first
https://www.reddit.com/Forexnoobs/comments/aezw0t/asset_management_competition/

I will start tracking an account for this starting on Monday. No-one else has said they want to take part in this, which is sad. However, I will still do it and provide the benchmark strategy. If others do start to get involved and they are showing reasonable results, I will start to look for someone to sponsor it. Should be able to get those who do well over a year or so at least $50,000 or so in investment for them to test out their wings in real asset management.




submitted by inweedwetrust to Forexnoobs [link] [comments]

Requesting Feedback On My New Strategy

I will start off saying I do indeed trade live with a small $1000 USD acc, but only part time.
RSI 14, EMA 5, 10 and 200. You could summarize my strategy as a daily trend breakout scalp. I usually stick to the major pairs, however I have a small watchlist of current trending pairs.
After analyzing my above indicators and watching EMA crossovers, I quite simply place pending BUY or SELL orders at the top of the current daily candlestick wick with a automated 2-3 pip TP and a 0.7 pip protection once 2 pips are reached. I technically have a stop loss but it is usually placed at a strong S/R line on the hourly chart.
I recall a YouTube seminar where the speaker explained how everyone tries to eat the entire Forex brownie, eventually you will overeat and lose/throw up everything. And how he tries to just nibble on the crusty bits along the edges.
This is a basis of my strategy: Get in the money and out as quick as possible. The trend is your friend. Your indicators are tools, not money makers.
Nearly 3 months of trial and over 100 trades, not one single loss. 2-3 pips per trade doesn't seem like much but with some very small leverage and a medium size 5 figure account (very feasible for me) one could easily generate sufficient cash flow.
submitted by armaida to Forex [link] [comments]

Another new-to-forex post! Yay!

Hey everyone, first things first - I've already read through the sidebar & have done plenty o' research on my own.
I started trading in April, worked with a coach all summer, and have been daytrading with a PDT account since August. I'm looking into expanding or switching to forex, and I'm hoping some of you could provide me with some insight into a few concepts. I've been papertrading w/ ToS this past week to see how applicable my strategy is. Before you tear me apart for using a demo account - this is the first demo account I've used, and I've built up enough emotional scar tissue to where money is now just numbers on a screen to me. I had a mild, big loss + stress fueled breakdown in September and had to take a brief sabbatical to contemplate and consider my life's path (a few days of heavy drinking, a few more of sobering up, and a week of self reflection), but I got all that figured out so yeah... Anyway!
  1. Has anyone done real trading with TD Ameritrade? I already have an account with them so it would be sooo nice if I didn't have to open ANOTHER brokerage account (it would be #5 for me... too many to keep track of). In addition, I'm 20, so I'm not able to trade Forex with IB. Once I turn 21 I'll obviously be moving to them. For now, though, TD sounds alright because I know ToS inside and out, I've had an account with them for years, and the spread doesn't seem too bad as it's usually about 1 pip.
  2. Is there an accurate, reliable, real-time source for volume data? Volume is of course a pretty important part of trading, but as far as I can tell, most brokers only provide volume data for trades placed through their system. I understand that this is a result of the lack of a central forex market, so what can I do to compensate? Is there an aggregation service that pulls volume from multiple sources? Or do I have to rely on volume approximations based on spread, time of day, ticks, etc?
  3. Is there any sort of L2 for Forex? Again, a decentralized exchange problem.
  4. For those who are profitable - what's your average hold time? I try to keep it under a day, and that's always worked for me.
  5. Again, for those who are profitable - what's your thing? Order flow? Price action? TA? Not looking for specific strategies, just a general view of what works.
  6. Has anyone made the switch from stocks to Forex? What was your experience like? How much did you have to learn/relearn to adjust to the FX market?
Personally, I haven't done much actual stock trading. I've always preferred index tracking ETNs and the like. Too unpredictable once you get into stocktwits land. The smarter half of me is pretty good at playing momentum with entry at the first 5m consolidation/distribution. I'm also a big fan of shorting resistance bounces. The gambler in me likes to scalp. And that's the story of how I lost $200 in commission in ONE DAY once! I'm much better at not doing that now.
Here is one of my most recent trades, shorting the Euro as it bounced off the downtrend/previous high/resistance/retracement/overextension. Unfortunately I never filled any of my limit sells so I ended up taking 2 mini-lots to .096 (I bought early cause I'm a pussy) from .1022. Feel free to tear this one apart! I also took 5 mini-lots short from .0962 to .0952 this afternoon cause I felt like making more money. Mmm. To be fair, I also took 10 long from .0962 to .0958 because I'm a big dummy. Never trade against the trend! (one of my rules)
I know it's a hell of a lot of open ended questions. Thanks in advance for any answers y'all might have.
Edit: A sticky? I'm honored!
submitted by toadkiller to Forex [link] [comments]

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